Bad news for Oregon Progressives

Bad news for Oregon Progressives…and Knute Buehler and Jason Atkinson in CD2…

Is anyone surprised? It’s going to be a Trump landslide this coming November.

British opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, gestures after casting his vote in the general election, in Islington, London, England, Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

An informal poll put up by my friend CJ re the CD2 race

With Diana at my side, I’ve taken a couple of weeks off to gather my (our) thoughts about the future. It’s been hard to hold back! Now, here’s something: it’s an informal poll put up by my friend CJ re the CD2 race. Please take a look and vote. Diana and I are enthusiastic Cliff Bentz supporters. I’ve spent hours interviewing him one-on-one at our house in Bend, three sessions over two days, and lots of phone conversations. Trust that he’s the real-deal. When you go to the poll on the Oregon Republican League Page, see my comments. More on Senator Bentz soon.

No Republican has filed for Secretary of State!

In the 2018 oregon primary elections, fifteen of our sixty Oregon House districts had no Republican candidates. In 2020? It looks like it might be thirty, or even more. And no Republican has filed for Secretary of State! A Trump landslide won’t do us any good if we have no candidates to ride into office on his coattails. There’s nothing about this impending debacle from the ORP, of course.

An Interesting Nuance in the Oregon 2nd Congressional District* Primary Race…

Here’s something regarding the Second Congressional District race over here in central and eastern Oregon. This is about Republican candidate Jason Atkinson’s campaign manager, Jim Dornan.

In October of 2016, Dornan went on record with this statement (ouch): “Trump is done,” and, “Barring something completely out of the blue, like Hillary being involved in a murder, I don’t see how he (Donald Trump) wins.” (For source, see Footnote #1)

But there’s more: Dornan is not just a hyper anti-Trumper. He’s perhaps even a (gasp) Biden supporter. This is from two months ago, in the Washington Examiner: “’Biden is probably the only plausible candidate the Never Trumpers could support,’ said Jim Dornan, a Republican operative in Washington who maintains relationships with anti-Trump Republicans.” (See Footnote #2)

And, for another recent article regarding Dornan’s never-Trumpism, see Footnote #3. Wowee zowee.

KDRV news stated that Atkinson has “tapped former Trump senior strategist Jim Dornan, ‘who shares the Atkinson campaign’s vision of values and ideals,’ to help run his 2020 campaign.” (See Footnote #4)

So, Atkinson and Dornan “share…the same…values and ideals.” That sounds exactly like Buehler’s “thoughtful moderate” schtick.

Also, Dornan is apparently referring to himself as a “former Trump senior strategist.” Yeah. Right. See how far that takes him when his never-Trumper statements go public. (Oh. Wait. They’re going public right here…). At first blush, Dornan appears to be just another inside-the-beltway, double-talking, Trump-denying, Republican consultant. e.g. Russ Walker et al.

Is Jason Atkinson himself a never-Trumper? I don’t know, but in choosing Dornan to run his campaign, one could reasonably assume he is. Anyway, even if he isn’t, in hiring Dornan he might as well be.

BAD move by Atkinson, right out of the gate. Over 90% of Republicans support President Trump. And in Oregon CD2, I’d stretch that to 95%.

Yet there could be some sweet poetic justice here: if Knute Buehler runs for the CD2 seat, “behind enemy lines,” so to speak, he and Atkinson will be splitting the microscopic CD2 never-Trumper vote as well as sparse RINO campaign dollars.

And I wonder, is THIS why Buehler is hesitating to file for the race?

Atkinson and/or Buehler? Alone or together, each is finished before even starting…that is, if they run against a solid pro-Trump/pro-life candidate.

The pro-Trump/pro-life candidate who wins the CD2 nomination in May will almost certainly win the congressional seat in the general election next November. But if the nominee is Buehler or Atkinson, due to the lack of a truly conservative candidate, I fear CD2 will be lost to the Democrats one year from now. And if that happens, Oregon Democrats will finally have their super-Blue Trifecta government: governor, both chambers of the legislature (with super-majorities, no less), both US Senators, and all five US Congressmen.

And THAT, my friends, would be the ultimate Oregon Republican train wreck.

But, there’s this: for the past months we’ve been going back and forth with LOTS of Oregon conservatives and there is no question that Republican voters are as on-fire as they ever have been. (Note that statewide, a number of county Republican parties are approaching outright rebellion against the historically and demonstrably never-Trumper state Oregon Republican Party.)

Back in 2016, SO MANY Republican consultants (and their candidates) made the irreversible, paint-myself-into-a-corner mistake of damning Donald Trump…and there is no un-painting that blunder. More and more, this nuance will reveal itself as primary contests across the country take shape.
-sam c.

*Oregon’s 2nd congressional district is the largest of Oregon’s five districts and is the seventh largest district in the nation. It includes Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, Wheeler, and part of Josephine counties.



Editorial: Why Stop In Connecticut? by David Jaques

Here’s another spot-on editorial by David Jaques. “This is what happens when you stop teaching the next generation our heritage, our laws, and the true application of justice under a constitutional republic.”

Why Stop In Connecticut?

Editorial by David Jaques, Roseburg Beacon, 11/13/2019

The problem isn’t so much that the courts are even considering cases like the ones being led by the families of victims of the Newtown Connecticut shooting back in 2012. The problem lies with the plaintiffs themselves!

I admit it is bewildering that the Supreme Court of the United States failed to intervene and stop the madness, but the madness didn’t start with them, they are just part of its reflection.

Why aren’t the victims’ families instead suing the drug companies that are a much bigger contributor to the problem of deranged homicidal criminals, going on a shooting spree, than the manufacturer of the firearms they use as their tool of choice?

But even that would be to pass right over the only real culprit, the shooter! We have lost all sense of direct responsibility for our own actions.

I mean with this kind of rationale for blame shifting can we assume it will be safe to sue Doritos, Hostess, McDonalds, Pepsi, Starbucks, and anyone else who sells products which are proven to cause obesity? And why not open season on Jack Daniels, Budweiser, Coors, Gallo, and every other manufacturer, brewer, or distiller of alcohol products every time there is a drunk driving accident? But then it isn’t just the alcohol, lets sue Hyundai, Toyota, Ford, Dodge, Chevy, Mazda, Honda, and anyone building cars that the drunks were operating at the time of the crash? NO! It was the idiot behind the wheel!

But if we are now going to allow Remington to be sued by these bereaved families, why stop in Connecticut? Let’s rip this wide open. All of the families of war victims should be able to sue the merchants of death that make all of the weapons and munitions and the systems that deliver them when raining death down upon unsuspecting victims. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Vietnam, could all become plaintiffs with claims against the arms manufacturers.

I am very concerned about the courts. And even though President Trump has made great strides in his first three years in appointing federal judges (152 Article III federal judges), in third place overall of any president’s appointments at this point in year three of their administration (Only Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had more at 166 and 160 respectively), there’s a long, long ways to go in restoring judicial independence and integrity to the federal bench. But again the bench is just a reflection of the deterioration of our entire judicial system. Look at our Justice Department! The Deep State has been running things so long that it’s hard to even find a bench-mark for the bench the way it was and should be.

Our law schools have become so corrupted it is no wonder they are putting out lawyers and judges who have little or no understanding of our Constitution and its precepts.

And it is high time that the congress fulfill its duty to reign in the runaway judicial branch, mainly the Supreme Court. They absolutely have that authority.

If nothing else this current decision of SCOTUS to allow the lawsuits to go forward against Remington certainly highlights the urgency of re-electing Donald J. Trump so that he gets another 2 plus appointments to the high court. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Nothing will have a greater impact over the next several decades than the legacy left on the U.S. Supreme Court.

This is what happens when you stop teaching the next generation our heritage, our laws, and the true application
of justice under a constitutional republic. It’s time to make justice just again.

–David J

Facebook statistical “engagement” numbers – 11/10/2019

The latest Facebook statistical “engagement” numbers. (I will occasionally publish this report.) The numbers speak for themselves. Note that most of Kate Brown’s engagements are people complaining about her performance. The ORP? Almost zero engagement: Nothing relevant on the page. No one goes there. I encourage subscribers to go to the other two pages to check the content.

Countdown to the November 2020 Trump Landslide

360 days remaining
Social/Political Random Notes, 1 through 4 (first of a series)

  1. Late yesterday afternoon, after our obligatory Costco shopping, Diana and I stopped to eat in a lovely restaurant in Knoxville, Tennessee. We were escaping the cold rain before our 90-minute drive back to our rural second home in southern Kentucky. In a booth across the room, was a mother and her two boisterous children. She was tall and slender, attractive. Blonde. Well dressed. Maybe thirty-five. The kids, a boy and a girl, were blonde and attractive and well-dressed too. We guessed they were five and seven years old. And yes, there was a husband there too. He sat across the table from his wife. T-shirt, scruffy beard, baseball cap pulled down low. We guessed he was about thirty-five, as well. He was obviously just off work for the day. Also, obviously, he was commander of the family, yet in this restaurant he was clearly not managing family operations. His wife did that, constantly corralling the animated, happy kids. With a blank face, looking down, he studied his cell phone the entire hour we were there. Without a phone in hand, and not saying a word, his wife gazed across the table at him. There was utter silence except for the children. Later, as we headed north through the pouring rain and the rush hour traffic, Diana’s comment was, “One-day, not too long from now, that man will look up from his phone and his family will be gone. And they won’t be coming back.”
  2. Regarding the sheer political-hackery of another state-level Oregon Republican Party-sponsored recall-Kate-Brown attempt, here’s the first post I did about the initial recall petition, back in mid-July:

    Here’s another post, from last week, about the proposed second attempt:

  3. In the never-ending effort to discredit me personally, the rumor is still being generated that I stole the Oregon Republican Party’s email mailing list prior to the ORP elections last February. Yet again, for the record, that is BS. Back in late 2018 we spent over $10,000 and expended thousands of volunteer hours to put our own list together. All via public records; county-by-county. Not one shred of our lists are based on any part of the ORP’s database.
  4. Trump landslide? You better believe it’s coming, and we need candidates in EVERY House district, not in just 75% of them as it was in 2018. The Trump coattail effect won’t work if we don’t have Republican candidates. We MUST remove the legislative super-majorities in the elections that are now 360 days away.

Endless Recall: the painful truth

My brother in law Troy says, “sometimes a good idea goes bad, but more often it’s a bad idea that goes bad.”

Perhaps this post will prevent the implementation of yet another bad idea.

And, there’s this, for you personally: in your life, do you want to feel good in the moment, or do you want the truth – even if that truth really, really hurts?

As painful as it often is, I ALWAYS seek the truth and then move outward from there. It’s not heroic. It’s pragmatic. If one doesn’t work with reality as-it-is, life will be a slap-dash fool’s game.

If you prefer to wallow in feel-good fantasy regarding the viability of the ORP’s recall efforts, go ahead and call me anti-Republican and a trouble-maker. It’s OK. Not too long ago the Oregon Republican Party Chairman did just that. But still, I’ve been called worse. And anyway, it’s not the truth about me, at least the “anti-Republican” part.

The trouble-maker part? Maybe. But if so, that’s just a minor byproduct of pointing out the truth.

Now, let’s discuss the down-and-dirty facts about the ORP recall efforts.

Here we are, three weeks out from the official failure of the recall petition to remove Governor Kate Brown, and way too many Republicans are still arguing about WHY the petition failed. They thrash back-and-forth in a messy social media blame-game of what must have gone wrong. Distracted – and good naturedly assuming the best intentions of their ORP leadership – they are not seeing the actual reason for the recall effort.

The reality? What went wrong was that the ORP Executive Committee initiated a recall petition in the first place. And now your leadership is talking about a second one. Why? Because for their purposes, the first one succeeded in spectacular fashion and they have every reason to believe a second one would be equally successful.

I’m not being facetious in saying “for their purposes.”

It’s diabolical: An aberrant purpose shrouded by a suspicious proposition, the failed recall petition accomplished precisely what our leaders wanted it to accomplish.

Let’s go one layer deeper to focus on our Republican leadership’s actual goal, not their professed desire to remove Kate Brown or their silly “let’s-send-those-awful-Democrats-a-message” BS.

Get this: The ORP’s recall petition, initiated last July, came directly on the heels of Michael Cross’s effort. Because of this move – deliberate vote splitting by the ORP brass – both petitions were instantly guaranteed to fail. But for the ORP’s Executive Committee top leaders who certainly knew this, failure would be a perfectly acceptable end result.

The recall petition’s actual purpose was not to displace Kate Brown or to “send a message.” It was to distract our Republican base from the upcoming elections for at least four solid months. And yes, if we continue to argue amongst ourselves about why it failed, a huge chunk of us will be distracted/demoralized right through the holidays.

This means that for a total of six months we will have been sidetracked; manipulated into believing the recall effort would remove Kate Brown and would, praise God, solve all our political problems.

For those who initiated the doomed petition, mission accomplished!

And yes, timed perfectly, we’re now about to get another ORP-generated recall-Kate-Brown petition rammed down our throats, thus prolonging chaotic distraction within our base for the NEXT six months, right up to the primary elections.

The ORP Chair’s inane argument for initiating Recall-Part-Deux? “Sometimes you have to fight twice to win once.”

It’s simple leftist political genius: for a solid year, distract the Republican base from focusing on the 2020 primary elections thus insuring the continued Democrat progressive dominance in Salem.

Oh, and in initiating a second go-round, I presume ORP leadership will mention that, in the extremely remote possibility the recall petition succeeds, Kate Brown will stay in office until a special election is called, right about the time of the primary elections next May.

After all the Republican anger and chaos, what do you think the chances would be of winning that special election? You’re right: zero chance. But even if we managed to remove Brown – in the midst of the primary elections, most of which we’ll be losing because we’ve been emotionally preoccupied with these endless recall petitions – we’ll be replacing crazy Democrat governor Kate Brown with equally crazy current Democrat Treasurer Tobias Read…and this will set up Read to be the incumbent Democrat governor in the 2022 gubernatorial race! If you don’t believe this is true, call Republican Secretary of State Bev Clarno and ask her.

Incumbent candidates almost always win their re-election races.

In the chaotic distraction over recall petition efforts that produce bad results no matter their outcomes, here’s the bottom-line goal of the petition promoters (and quietly nodding-in-approval Democrat progressives): Republicans will not be prepared for the 2020 primary elections.

And no question, over the years, primary elections are where we’ve lost the state to Democrats.

Initiate another recall petition now and next May we’ll again have lefty RINO-approved statewide candidates who can’t win their general elections (most recently, think Buehler and Pierce), and in many internal races we’ll have no nominees at all. (In the 2018 elections, 25% of our sixty House races had no Republican general election candidates. Yes, you read that correctly.)

Can you now see that if our ORP leaders want to guarantee continued Progressive Democrat control in Salem – and by their actions and non-actions it sure seems that way – initiating a second recall petition is the proper tact? It makes perfect sense if one accepts the very believable hypothesis that top state ORP leaders don’t give a rat’s butt about regular every-day Oregonians like us. If you truly think this tiny handful of leaders at the tippy-top of the ORP Executive Committee leadership-chain actually cares about you and me, great. Then post your evidence on Facebook so the rest of us can see what we’ve been overlooking.

For those of you who have been thinking a second recall effort is the secret sauce we’ve all been waiting for, take a deep breath and reconsider your position based on the obvious facts, not what feels good in the moment.

And don’t blame me if the above logic distresses you. I’m just the reality-messenger. But then again, feel free to attack me personally if that makes you feel better. I really don’t care. Really.

Bottom-line, we Oregon Republicans have been manhandled by our own leadership, just when they should be laser-focused on the only salvation there is, the upcoming 2020 primary elections. Have you noticed? Notwithstanding the horrible ORP website, never does state party leadership discuss the Salem super-majority problem or give more than lip service to what we need to do to deliver seven electoral votes to President Trump next November.

And no small thing, in all of this our state organization has been reduced to impotent laughing-stock status. It’s in the numbers: other than their ability to distract and manipulate their base, the ORP has near-zero voter impact. (

This ORP recall petition underhandedness is analogous to the tactics DC Democrats are using in their Donald Trump pseudo-impeachment circus. In each case, a dubious premise cloaks a nefarious intent. The glaring dissimilarity? Here in Oregon, it’s Republicans doing dirty work on fellow Republicans.

We can’t allow this second recall attempt to happen.

Please contact your ORP Central Committee/Executive Committee representatives and talk them out of this bad idea that will for sure, turn out bad. Tell them to instead insist that their Executive Committee focus on the only two goals that matter and are actually attainable: removal of the Democrat super-majorities in Salem, and the delivery of seven electoral votes to President Trump next November.

Let’s get that done, and then we’ll deal with the governorship in 2022.
-Sam Carpenter

David Jaques Editorial: No Knute is Good Knute

No Knute is good Knute

Editorial by David Jaques, Roseburg Beacon, 10/30/2019

Congressman Greg Walden announced this week that he would not seek re-election in 2020. He said the decision was not because he didn’t think the House would remain in Democrat control, but that it was time to pursue new interests at this stage in his life.

Well, many, me included, have been disappointed in the lone Republican Congressman from Oregon’s second congressional district for some time now.
He is in a safe district, comprised of a farming, ranching, and timber based economy and yet his voting record is one of the worst of the Republicans in congress when it comes to following the Constitution. On the Freedom Index out of a possible 100% Walden scored an anemic 49%, as compared to Jim Jordan from Ohio for example with a solid 81%, or Senator Rand Paul with a stellar 94%. The Heritage Foundation’s Heritage Action rating has Walden at just 63% out of a possible 100%.

Greg Walden was brought up, politically speaking by one of Oregon’s true conservatives, Congressman Denny Smith, a former Air Force Fighter pilot and current newspaper publisher, who once held the seat representing Eastern Oregon. Denny was in the 90% conservative voting index rating consistently throughout his congressional career.

Greg Walden has been at odds with his constituents on a number of key issues, among those breaching dams. He has been a consistent critic of President Trump. But enough about Walden, other than to say he stayed too long and it’s time for a new direction for CD2.

That said, two time statewide election loser, Knute Buehler has announced that he is considering running for Walden’s seat in the 2020 primary election. Buehler lost two statewide elections to Kate Brown, and that takes some doing! He lost in his race for Oregon Secretary of State in 2012 by more than 136,000 votes with a percentage gap between him and Kate Brown of more than 8%. Then in their rematch, this time for Oregon Governor, in 2018 he lost again by 120,000 votes and a margin spread of about 7 points.

Like the man he would like to follow, Greg Walden, Knute Buehler too, is anti- Trump. He has opposed him on immigration reform, took him to task on his nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court Brett Kavanaugh, calling on the president to withdraw his nomination, and in general has been against the president from the get-go. And this will not y with CD2 voters, who overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2016. And 90% of Oregon Republican voters support our president.

Buehler is wrong on abortion, stating during his run for governor he would not support changing one law on the books in Oregon, which allows abortion up to the day of delivery for any reason, including sex- selection and provides free abortions to illegals.

Buehler is wrong on the second amendment too, and had an “F” rating from Oregon Firearms Federation. In fact it is easy to make the case that Buehler is at odds with much of the Oregon Republican Party platform, yet he was sold as the best alternative to Kate Brown. Look how that turned out!

Oregon republicans do not support liberal RINO candidates. Ask Gordon Smith. He ran as a Reagan Republican, and like Walden apparently caught Potomac fever. When the republican voters discovered he was not a conservative, they turned him out. Monica Wehby should have been a slam dunk to win the U.S, Senate race, until she abandoned her pro-life position to try and court moderates, and she lost.

Buehler’s RINO brand of Republican just won’t y in Oregon’s most conservative district. He couldn’t win even when he had all the Portland metro, Salem, and Eugene liberals voting. How does he expect to do better facing real grass roots republicans in the primary in Oregon’s rural Eastern district?

The last thing we need is Buehler ghting against two or more conservatives in the primary, like he did in the governor’s race, while the conservative split the vote, liberal Rhodes Scholar Knute wins the primary and then loses the general, giving another seat to the Dems!

Oregon republicans had better get behind a conservative candidate early and decisively and head off another Buehler debacle! This is a time nationally when republicans need to gain new seats, not risk losing solid Republican held seats.

Buehler needs to stay down in San Diego, where he just started a new business, and let Oregon conservatives chart a new course, a traditional Oregon values course, for CD2. And we need a congressman who can work well with President Donald J. Trump in his second term!

–David J

(Note: David nailed this exactly. As for us, if Buehler decides to run, we will use every resource in our power to convince district voters to deny him the nomination. If he’s not working directly for the other side, his duplicitousness, political tactlessness and disdain for every-day Oregonians accomplishes the same thing. -sam and Diana)