Scientific poll of Oregon voters, Summer 2019

September 5, 2019

Here’s the latest scientific poll of Oregon voters.

Conducted by Triton Polling in late July, Diana and I personally commissioned it at a cost of $4,150.

Initially we were not going to release it, but have now decided to make it public. Here is our summary and links to the actual results. In some instances, you will see that we have added our personal subjective conclusions.

  • The robocall Triton Poll questions reached “likely voters.” The four largest political voter segments representing 95.1% of Oregon voters were carefully segmented by geography, gender, age, etc. We worked hard to get it right using Triton’s most up-to-date databases and applying an exacting scientific methodology. This is a hyper-balanced, profoundly fair analysis of the Oregon voter population as a whole, including Republicans, Democrats, Independents and the non-affiliated. Samples were relatively large with the margin-of-error rate at an unusually low 2.4%.
  • Matching the Oregon voting population, here is the percentage breakdown of our samples of likely voters by political category:
  • There has been burgeoning growth in the number of Democrat “progressive” voters. Subjective: In early 2016, my estimate that 30% of Oregon Democrats were outright progressive was probably a bit too conservative, maybe by 10%. And also, since Donald Trump became president, Democrat party leadership has turned hard Left. With these two factors combined, we’d say that today the percentage of Democrats who call themselves progressive is 50%. This equates to approximately 20% of our total voting population. Our viewpoint is that these are seriously unreasonable people and so we Republicans should stop wasting time trying to convince them of anything. Strategy? Let’s focus on the other 80%…
  • Overall, significantly telling statistics are some of the very low “Not Sure/Don’t Know” responses. At this point, most voters seem to have already made up their minds. (There are a few exceptions and these are only on the Democrat side: they are soft and indecisive about Law enforcement Q7, veterans Q8, rural Oregon Q9, and whether the size of oregon government is reasonable Q11.) Subjective bottom line: This position-passion is also supported by the fact that poll respondents were highly motivated to answer the rather lengthy questioning as illustrated by the two-day completion of the survey. Isaiah Flair, our Triton Polling contact, had estimated, based on many other previous polls that Triton has conducted, that it would take 4 days to complete the survey. He confirmed with me that the hyper-contracted time-frame of less than 2 days suggests that voters are very anxious to express their views. Oregon is truly polarized. (However, our analysis of Question #2, below, suggests this current decisiveness will soften as the election comes closer).
  • Outside of this poll, but important and germane enough to note here: Based on the Oregon Republican Party executive elections held last February, and the ORP’s history of activity over 2017 and 2018, few would disagree that 90% of the ORP Executive Committee and 70% of the ORP Central Committee has bought into the argument that the party must move left if we are to win elections. Subjective: this is an interesting positioning considering the move-Left tact has never worked. (Postscript: Bill Currier, ORP Chair was offended by the previous remarks and shortly after I released this post he issued a defensive statement to his Central Committee, calling me “anti-Republican,” and, “anti-party.” Good grief. My beef is not with the “Republican Party,” it’s with the leadership of the Executive Committee of the Oregon Republican Party. If you, the reader, are wondering whether or not  the ORP Executive Committee truly represents you and the other 701,000 registered Republicans in Oregon, read this. And, since Chair Currier has opened this particular can of worms, maybe he will finally answer the questions in this post for his Executive and Central Committees.)
  • Note there are two Triton Polling statistical reports:
  1. “Top Line,” the combined results of all three political segments.
    Triton – July 2019 Topline Results
  2. “Crosstabs,” with statistics provided for any one of the particular questions: at the bottom of this spreadsheet are tabs Q1 through Q12. (Q12 is actually labeled “Party.”) Click on any of those tabs to get results based on that particular parameter.
    Triton – July 2019 Crosstabs

Following are summaries of the poll questions to the combined four Oregon primary political segments (Republicans, Democrats, Independents and non-affiliated). See Spreadsheets.

Q2. President Trump. “If the election were held today, would you vote for him?” Overall, for all voters combined, the numbers say that if the election were held today he would be defeated in Oregon by a margin of 12.5%. In comparison to our polling results of early 2018, Oregon Republican support of the President has slackened by 11%, from 89% to 78%. This lower level of popularity is consistent with his drop in national polls. In Oregon, why has this happened? Subjective: An ugly mainstream media, an impotent and historically RINO Oregon Republican Party, and Donald Trump’s lack of personal exposure in the state. Can this be turned around? Question #2’s “Not Sure/Don’t Know” combined statistics is a low 4.9%. In the surface analysis, this low number suggest that most voters have already made up their minds about Donald Trump. However, as election day approaches there will be an increase in emotional intensity and there will be cross-overs: Republican to Democrat? Near zero. Democrat to Republican? Substantial. The other factor to consider is that some voters are reluctant to admit to a pollster that they support Donald Trump. Diana and I are confident that President Trump’s Republican popularity will again be at 90% or higher as the general  election occurs 14 months from now.

Q3. Overall, Top-Line results show immigration/sanctuary state and the economy are the two lead issues, total 44%. Cross-tab analysis shows Republicans at 74% and Independents at 47%. At 19%, Democrats don’t see these two issues as important, putting their focus on the environment (aka climate change), and healthcare (aka single-payer health insurance), at a combined 50%. Our subjective thoughts: Not surprising….

Q4. Overall, Top-Line results show 51% support the border wall, 47% oppose it. Cross-tab analysis shows Republicans overwhelmingly favor it (91%). Independents support it by a majority (58%). Only 17% of Democrats support the wall, with 80% opposed. This major disparity between parties rivals the question of Donald Trump himself. Subjective: we are surprised at Democrat passion for open borders.

Q5. Support or oppose Sanctuary State? Overall, 49% support it. Cross-tab analysis shows Republicans strongly oppose (84%). NAV/Ind. modestly (55%) oppose. Democrats decidedly want to continue sanctuary state status (16% opposed; 80% in favor). The strength of Democrat support of our sanctuary state status is strong. Again, a huge disparity between Republicans and Democrats.

Q6. Pro-life and pro-choice. We deliberately kept the answer possibilities simple (“yes, from-conception,” “no, pro-choice,” and, “not sure”). Top Line results give a 19 point advantage to pro-choice. Cross-tab analysis: Republicans are 65% pro-life-from-conception, but have a significant segment that is pro-choice: 20%. As expected, Democrats are overwhelmingly pro-choice (82% vs 11% pro-life). Independents modestly side with Democrats but are not nearly as adamant (48% choice and 39% Life).

Q7. Are police hindered by politicians? Top Line: by a 25% margin, most agree. Cross-tab analysis shows that Republicans strongly agree (80%), and NAV/Ind. Modestly agree (57%). Democrats are soft: 26% agree, 40% disagree, with 34% unsure. Subjective: the softness/indecisiveness of Democrats on this issue is interesting as their own blue metro areas, where most of them live, are without question falling into dangerous chaos.

Q8. “Have Oregon veterans been treated fairly?” Most disagree, by a 17% margin. Cross-tab: Republicans and NAV/Ind. are the strongest, both disagree at 52%. Democrats disagree at 46% with 23% unsure.

Q9. Politicians have “done enough” for Rural Oregon. All three political segments disagree with this by an enormous combined 42% margin. Even so, the cross-tab analysis shows Democrats are soft here, compared to Republicans and NAV/Ind.. Republicans 84% disagree, Independents 70% disagree. Democrats 44% disagree with 22% not sure. These are not surprising results considering Oregon’s geographic city/country political division. Subjective: there is also the factor of the palpable disdain Democrat progressive city-dwellers tend to have for rural Republicans.

Q10. Wildfires: “State leaders have done enough to prevent massive wildfires…” Overall, all segments agree there is a problem here, with a huge  40% margin between those who disagree and those who agree. Republicans disagree at 74%. NAV/Ind. 71%. Democrats 54%. Not surprising results.

Q11. “Do you approve or disapprove of the size and influence of the Salem Government?” Overall, disapprove outweighs approve by a 16% margin. Cross-tab: Republicans and NAV/Ind. disapprove strongly at 79% and 62% respectively (with approve at 12% and 26%). Dem’s disapprove at 23%, approve at 56%, The Democrat not-sure answer is indecisively high at 21%. This illustrates another huge disparity between Oregon Republicans and Democrats.