January 25th, 2018
Here are polling results…and the details of how we’re running the campaign. From this, you’ll have a good idea how I’ll perform as governor: transparent, under budget, and ahead of schedule.
First: the polls. We’re leading. Following are the overview details. Keep in mind our campaign has expended only about 10% of what our major Republican rival has, spending money (and time) much more efficiently, resulting in a very close race.
Here’s the breakdown: Via a number of scientific polls, we are neck and neck in the Primary race. But two separate polls – one Zogby and one Triton – show me just one point behind Kate Brown in the General election (with my Republican opponent 3 points behind).
These numbers dispel the myth that in the Oregon gubernatorial race, the Republican candidate must be for the same old business-as-usual big government in order to win, and confirms that the winning candidate MUST have a solid pro-family/pro-prosperity/limited government stance.
What about Facebook, which is a super-accurate profile of the populace? Growing at an average of 250 Likes per day since the beginning of the campaign, this page has just exceeded an incredible 60,000 total. This triples the total of Governor Kate Brown, who is just now reaching 20,000. My closest Republican opponent lags behind with just 10,000.
Yes, the grassroots ARE on fire….
Now, about how we’re operating the campaign:
Are we running a “conventional” Primary campaign? Not according to the average DC GOP campaign consultant (consultants who have, collectively, over the last 30 years, had a horrible track record in trying to win Oregon statewide elections).
Yet, my campaign IS conventional in a business sense, led by a candidate who is knowledgeable and involved with the prime goal of creating value; always front-and-center, where money and time are carefully managed, and where campaign staff and voters are treated like gold.
We have a business plan called the Carpenter Campaign Strategic Objective. It’s brief and to the point. Here are some key elements:
Staff: This Primary campaign operation has, in addition to me, three full-time staff managers, a half-dozen key volunteers, over 300 on-the-street volunteers, and a number of hired and pro-bono outside political operatives. Without exception, every single person in the campaign is from Oregon. Our monthly budget is approximately $25,000. (More on expenditures below.)
My personal role: Keep in mind I am a business turn-around specialist and have started numerous businesses from scratch (and for that matter, I can’t wait to get inside the state government-machine to work with our new Republican-controlled legislature to get things cleaned up. Believe me: the dust will fly…).
I am the candidate, but am also the consultant and operations chief of this Primary campaign – the CEO and the COO of it. During the week, I manage the operation and strategize with my managers. These leadership duties require approximately 2 hours of my time each day. I also spend a minimum of 4 hours per day writing and creating copy for advertising, and handling correspondence. And each day I spend 4-6 hours communicating with voters. Weekends? Each day I work maybe 6 hours, continuing my communication with voters.
Do I get a day off? Not often, but Diana and I find time to walk, exercise, go to church, hang with friends and family, and get out to the dog park with our coonhound, Justy. We eat well too, thanks to Diana’s fine southern cooking. In all of this, we’re staying balanced and remaining healthy. Diana holds our personal lives together, spending long hours covering household, logistic, and traveling basics while I focus on the campaign. And all the while, she is directly involved with campaign strategy and operation. I could not do this without her.
My managers and I are continuously “building the machine” of the campaign. I am expert at delegating, and at automating what can be automated (without losing the human touch). I am also ruthless about eliminating tasks that are not paying off. This campaign’s strategy differs from that of traditional campaigns in which the candidate is shuffled off to the sidelines to be managed by the campaign consultant, spending 8 or more hours per day – on the phone and in-person – talking to donors; raising money (most of which those candidates pay back to the consultant!)
Typical campaigns expend $50,000 or more per month on key consultants and managers alone. In this Primary, we’re spending zero. But yes, in the General campaign, we will be adding a couple of key upper-end managers and a number of mid-level staffers, hopefully all from Oregon.
Time with voters or donors? Here in the first three months, and as part of the original business plan, I have deliberately NOT spent long hours each day raising money. Instead, those 4-6 hours per day (and sometimes 10 or more hours) have been spent communicating with voters via social media, email, telephone and in person. This is why we lead in the polls! We are succeeding much more efficiently than other candidates, and doing more for less money, by focusing on what matters: connecting directly with the people of Oregon.
So per our Strategic Objective, fund raising begins now, in late January. We’ve spent three months establishing me as the leader (I announced October 25th), and now it’s time to begin to raise money. You’ll be hearing from us soon in this regard!
Primary Campaign Expenditures: we’ve spent $50,000, approximately $40,000 from me personally, and the other $10,000 from donations that have trickled in. To date, our closest Primary opponent has exceeded a staggering $800,000 in total expenditures. We are 3 1/2 months from the Primary election. We’ll win it spending less than $250,000 total, painting a picture of what will be done in office: accomplishing more while spending less.
General Election Campaign: So, once the Primary election is won, we’ll go into big-league campaigning. A large part of my personal campaign role will shift away from everyday management and into heavy-duty fund-raising. However, the largest chunk of my time each day will continue to be expended communicating directly with voters…AND on-the-ground campaigning with swing-district Republican House and Senate candidates, as part of the Oregon Red Trifecta movement.
We will win the General campaign spending less than $4,000,000 (We expect Kate Brown will spend three to four times that amount…but you saw first-hand how the big-money tact worked out for Hillary…).
What about the Oregon Red Trifecta in which we will also win the Oregon House and Senate? That fund-raising machine is being built separately and you’ll soon see it go public nationwide after the primary election.
We MUST take the House and the Senate if we are to get things straightened out!
This is our plan. We will come out on top because we have the winning message of limited government and increased efficiency that will Make Oregon Great Again and bring prosperity back to the hardworking people of our incredible state…and we know how to get that message out. And we will do it for a fraction of the cost of our competition, because that’s how I do things…and I will do this for you too, when I get to Salem.
The dust will fly