Triton Poll: Carpenter in Lead in Republican Primary Race

November 18, 2017

These poll results (go here to see the actual poll) illustrate an important and significant contrast of voter sentiment between me and my leading opponent, Knute Buehler. Here is a political insider’s overview of the results:

“When presented with both positive and critical information on both candidates, there is a considerable shift from Buehler and undecided voters to Carpenter. The move toward Carpenter is quite impressive. The two negative issues focused on Buehler are very damaging indeed to his candidacy and present a wide opening for Carpenter”

Rating President Trump’s Performance, Question 4:

Poll Data: Strongly approve 67.8%. Somewhat Approve 18.5%. Total approval is 86.3%. (A previous Carpenter sponsored Triton poll taken in early October showed President Trump at 91.1% approval.)

Comment: Nine out of ten Oregon Republican voters support President Trump. This Oregon approval level is consistent with other national polls.

Statewide Name Recognition, Questions 5 and 6:

Poll Data: Carpenter 47%, Knute Buehler 52%

Comment: Just two weeks after announcing his candidacy, Carpenter’s campaign is neck-and-neck in name recognition with Knute Buehler’s. Sam’s candidacy began on October 25th, and since September 1st when he formed his exploratory committee, he has spent only 35K. Buehler announced his candidacy on August 3rd and has expended nearly 300K.

Experience and History: Questions 9 and 10:

Poll Data: More Likely to vote for a candidate based on experience and background. Carpenter, “More Likely” is 68.3%. Buehler, 60.0%.

Comment: When voters are presented with Carpenter’s entrepreneurial/business/non-political background, he scores higher than when voters are presented with Buehler’s medical/political history.

“More Likely” or “Less Likely” to Vote, Questions 11 through 14:

Poll Data: Carpenter’s previous bid in the 2016 U.S. Senate race and his positioning as a political outsider, scored “More Likely” to vote, 37.9% and 57.3% respectively. In contrast, Buehler’s anti-Trump, pro-choice/pro- gay marriage posture, and his anti-parental voting rights voting record scored “more likely” to vote, 15.7% and 14.1%.

Regarding “Less Likely” to vote per the above listed positions: Carpenter scored at 18.2% and 14.0% respectively, while Buehler’ scored 69.9% and 75.0% respectively.

Comment: When voters are presented with perhaps “the” fundamental differences in positioning, Carpenter’s advantage is striking, and is further reflected in the answers to the following question:

Who do you prefer? Question 15:

Poll Data: In this “If the primary election were held today” question, Carpenter scores 44.6%. Buehler scores 11.7%

Comment: In stunning contrast, Carpenter garners nearly four times the votes of his leading opponent.

Additional Information:

Facebook followers: Sam Carpenter: 51K (30K new followers since Sept. 1st)
Kate Brown: 26K
Knute Buehler: 9K

Go here to see the actual poll.